Making Sense of the Mangled MLS Eastern Conference Playoff Race

If the last weekend of play in Major League Soccer taught us anything, it’s that we don’t know a thing when it comes to predicting the playoff races, especially in the Eastern Conference. 

Only two of the 10 teams in the East took three points out of Week 28, and both of those results were road wins by the New England Revolution and Columbus Crew. 

Philadelphia lost on the road, D.C. United needed a late equalizer to tie the Chicago Fire, New York City FC played to level terms with FC Dallas, and Toronto FC came from behind to draw the New York Red Bulls at home. 

With a month left in the regular season, basically anything can happen in the East. Toronto are still the clear favorites to capture the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason, but one more slip-up by Greg Vanney’s men could open the door for either of the New York sides to slide into the top position. 

Philadelphia and Montreal seemed to be locks to qualify for the postseason a few weeks ago, and in all honesty, they should still make it, but a late surge by New England has put the fourth- and fifth-place clubs under a bit of pressure entering Week 29. 

Starting with Friday’s clash between NYCFC and Chicago at Yankee Stadium, Week 29 presents us with a quintet of juicy affairs that could alter the landscape of the East further. 

The same can be said about the rest of the matchweeks leading up to the final day of the season on October 23, as the teams still in contention fight for the best spots possible. 

As we mentioned above, Toronto are still in charge of their own destiny despite dropping two points to the Red Bulls at BMO Field on Sunday. The Reds play four of their final five matches at home, including three in the next week starting with Philadelphia on Saturday. 

The formula is as straightforward as it gets for Toronto. If the Reds win the remainder of their home contests, they will secure the top spot in the East and challenge the top sides in the Western Conference for the Supporters’ Shield. 

Jozy Altidore is in the form of his life, with eight goals in his last nine games. As if the Toronto attack wasn’t scary enough, Sebastian Giovinco is preparing to return from injury. If Altidore and Giovinco are both in form entering the postseason, it will be hard not to pick against the Reds. 

The picture is cloudier once you look below Toronto in the standings. The Red Bulls and NYCFC are both two points behind Toronto, with the Red Bulls holding the tiebreaker advantage at the moment. But that could all change if Jesse Marsch’s men continue to give away leads. 

The Red Bulls have let in a pair of goals when leading in three of their last five matches. Had they won at least one of those matches, they would’ve been in decent shape to challenge Toronto. Despite the incredible form of Bradley Wright-Phillips in front of the net, the Red Bulls haven’t been able to put everything together …

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