Portland Trail Blazers Complete 2016-17 Season Preview

The Portland Trail Blazers’ surprise 2016 playoff run was littered with asterisks.

They unexpectedly climbed an uncharacteristically watered-down Western Conference featuring a .500 playoff team (the Houston Rockets) for the first time since 1999. The Los Angeles Clippers roster Portland upset in the opening round lost All-Stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to injury during the series.

But the Blazers’ postseason series win—only their second since 2000—was still something to be celebrated. After losing four starters and its sixth man in the summer of 2015, Portland reached a level of success no one saw coming.

“Our season was supposed to be over two weeks ago according to everyone else,” Blazers swingman Allen Crabbe said after the series clincher, per OPB.org’s Anne M. Peterson.

The question now becomes: What’s next for Rip City?

Last season was about more than seizing opportunity. The talent pool was underrated, as two-time All-Star Damian Lillard and 2016 Most Improved Player C.J. McCollum displayed during career years. Since both are under the age of 27, the pair could be in line for further development, as most of this young roster is.

But will that growth, coupled with offseason additions, help Portland retain or even improve its Western Conference standing? Or might the Blazers face the type of regression many expected for them last season?

Biggest Offseason Move

Portland couldn’t print money fast enough to spend this summer. The Blazers committed more than $334 million over five contracts, highlighted by McCollum’s $106.6 million extension, Evan Turner’s $70 million pact and the matching of Crabbe’s $74.8 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets.

McCollum’s extension carries the most meaning, as Portland ensured its place on the short list of the NBA’s best backcourts for years to come. And keeping Crabbe was a calculated—albeit costly—wager that more elements of his game will sprout alongside his already lethal long-range shooting (career 38.5 percent).

But the Turner addition represents the biggest pivot of Portland’s summer. The former No. 2 pick is a Swiss army knife inside the arc and was the only player to average at least 10 points, four rebounds and four assists in less than 30 minutes per game last season.

That said, his outside-the-arc game is nonexistent. He’s a 26.2 percent three-point shooter over the past two seasons, tied for the 10th-lowest rate of the 276 players who attempted at last 100 triples. Given the high priority Portland places on long-distance shots—only the Houston Rockets have attempted more since head coach Terry Stotts took over in 2012—Turner’s lack of touch could cause some offensive congestion.

As Sports Illustrated’s Ben Golliver noted, that’s not the only reason Turner looks like an awkward fit:

Turner’s size relative to Portland’s small backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum should help to a degree on the second front, but he’s hardly a cure-all on that end. … What’s more, his weak outside shooting, deliberate style and desire to have the ball in his hands makes him a questionable fit alongside the ball-dominant Lillard and McCollum.

Portland’s other major external addition, Festus Ezeli, could fill a bigger need as a backbone for the 21st-ranked defense. But the oft-injured center must stay healthy to do that, and he’s yet to put his knee problems behind him.

Rotation Breakdown

Stotts should open his rotation up to a competition, though the backcourt is already set in …

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