Oklahoma City Thunder: Complete 2016-17 Season Preview

There’ll be a moment during Russell Westbrook’s 2016-17 season when it all sinks in, when the chest bump he’s expected (and gotten) so far his entire career never comes.

He’ll barrel headlong into the lane, scattering bodies as he goes, before rising to flush a one-hander (plus the foul, of course) on some poor rim-protecting sap. He’ll stomp toward the baseline, unleashing a primal celebratory scream into the night, triumphant.

And then…nothing.

Sure, Andre Roberson or Steven Adams might be there to dap him up. But Kevin Durant won’t, and that absence will define the Oklahoma City Thunder’s forthcoming campaign for better or worse—but almost definitely worse.

       

Biggest Offseason Move

Big news on the concessions front, everyone. Rumor has it the Thunder’s food-and-beverage director green-lit the switch from canola to vegetable oil in the popcorn poppers, which should really add a depth of flavor that…OH MY GOD: KEVIN DURANT IS GONE—EVERYONE PANIC!

No mystery here. Durant’s switch to the Golden State Warriors changes everything about the Thunder’s prospects. For a while, KD’s exit and Westbrook’s looming free agency in 2017 made it seem like OKC would completely tear things down, possibly following Durant’s departure with a pre-emptive get-what-you-can Westbrook trade.

Westbrook signed an extension instead, which offered a modicum of stability—though it’s worth noting teams inquiring about him will only be more interested if they know they can now keep him under contract for an extra three seasons.

On the floor, this is officially Westbrook’s show, and everyone expects the league’s most ferocious athlete and feral competitor to wreak havoc as an unquestioned alpha.

Now, he does what he wants:

Friday’s Mood #whynot

A video posted by Russell Westbrook (@russwest44) on Aug 19, 2016 at 9:36am PDT

Head coach Billy Donovan talked down the Russ takeover angle on The Vertical Podcast with Adrian Wojnarowski: “He’s obviously proven he can score, but I think Russell’s also smart enough now to understand he’s got to take the group with him. I think from a style of play standpoint, we’ve got to maximize the people around him inside the system where they can be effective, productive and can help.”

The idea of Westbrook not expanding his role to an unprecedented degree is nice in theory, but the likelier scenario involves him blowing away his 2014-15 usage rate (which ranked second all time when Durant was out for most of the year with injury) and dethroning 2005-06 Kobe Bryant as the single-season usage king.

Oh, and in any other offseason, trading Serge Ibaka for Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Ersan Ilyasova would have shaken the Thunder to their foundations. But thanks to the Durant move, it barely registered as a tremor.

       

Rotation Breakdown

Westbrook, Adams and Oladipo have to start, and though Ilyasova is not an objectively better player than Enes Kanter, shooting is at a massive premium on this roster. Therefore, OKC’s newest power forward is likely to see time on the first unit, and he’ll stay there as long as he’s stretching the floor with his career 37 percent stroke from deep.

Leaning on Ilyasova as the lone source of spacing is a scary thought, but no on else in the starting lineup inspires consistent long-range fear in opponents.

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Frontcourt versatility is a strength for OKC, though, and against more conventional two-big …

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