UFC 203 odds, gambling strategy guide

Hey  there prospective MMA bettors! Back at it again with another UFC card this weekend. This one is a pay-per-view so that means we are also back at it again with another gambling preview of the fights, the odds, and my own personal breakdown of where the value lies. This week, there are a lot of fights between veteran fighters and so there are a lot of stat breakdowns today.

Also, this week I’m going to try noting at least one bet for every fight as something of interest even if I don’t support betting it (I’ll say I don’t). For instance, I don’t think you should bet on the Nik Lentz fight, but if you are, Lentz at +105 is probably the best bet that can be had on that particular bout.

As for the stat stuff, the number after the odds on each fighter is the percentage probability of victory that those odds imply. That means Stipe Miocic at -125 says he will win that fight 55.55% of the time. If you think he wins more the fight more often than that, then you should bet it because there is value in the line.

As always, all stats come from FightMetric and all the odds are from Best Fight Odds. Net Value means how much money you would have made if you bet $100 on that fighter in every one of his/her fights that odds could be found for and I calculate that using the closing odds for each fight.

Doubly as always, I’m trying to provide the most thorough guide I can for those who want to legally bet or who just enjoy following along. If you are a person who chooses to gamble, only do so legally, responsibly, and at your own risk.

Breakdown

The main event of the evening sees two of the best athletes in the heavyweight division mix it up in what figures to be mostly a striking affair. Miocic is predominantly a boxer and a good one at that. He throws a very high volume for the division and he does so with technical proficiency. His striking is mostly built around sharp footwork and a snapping jab, cross combination. At range, he will set a high pace with straight punches and leg kicks but he does his best work on the counter, slipping and shifting into a pretty check hook and a really excellent back stepping cross counter, the punch that won him the heavyweight title. He’s also a solid defensive fighter, again stitched together around head movement and pivots, allowing him to control the angle he gets hit at. Still, his high pace means he gets hit a fair amount and his body and leg defense is definitely a weakness.

Aside from boxing, Miocic has had clear success working his wrestling and ground and pound. He has good entries into single leg takedowns (particularly off the counter) and a relatively clean, if unimpressive finish. On top, he is much like his standup where he fires off a lot of volume that wins rounds and wears his opponents down. He’s a good defensive wrestler as well which usually let him dictate the areas of engagement.

Though Overeem is genuinely considered a kickboxer, the reality is that he does everything in MMA very well. On his feet, Overeem has transitioned from a traditional pressuring power puncher into a deft out fighter, using his speed and sense of range to work consistently from distance. He also definitely has the pure power edge here and the strikes that he throws can end a night very quickly. This shift has also been accompanied by a noticeable drop in activity which hurts him in a round winning capacity but covers up for his lack of durability by putting him in less exchanges.

As good of a striker as Overeem is, where he truly excels is in the clinch where his positioning is fantastic and he delivers crushing knees. He’s also a very positive wrestler as shown by his takedown accuracy and on top he is an excellent grappler and ground and pounder. He’s also a viable submission threat though mostly he prefers to maintain top position and control these days.

This fight comes down to the durability of Overeem and his ability to finish the fight. Skill for skill, Overeem has more tools here as well as more power and probably a touch more speed. He is a good out fighter and should have the advantage in the clinch. He also can probably score takedowns if he needs to and can almost certainly avoid being takedown by Miocic. His real issue here is that his chin isn’t great, and he is on a noticeable decline, which doesn’t pair well against Miocic who is durable and still improving. Still, despite the fact that Overeem is a declining athlete, in his last fight he hit a jumping rear-leg crane kick into same-side left hook combination which is something most welterweights can’t do much less a heavyweight. Miocic is a durable heavyweight, but if Overeem lands cleanly, he has more than enough power to finish this fight. On the other side, Miocic also has enough power to score a finish and in a pure striking match his volume should win rounds over Overeem. It’s a matter of whether Overeem’s range of advantages outweigh Miocic’s depth of them and ultimately I favor Overeem by a hair. Realistically, this fight is an absolute coin flip fight so I like plus-money bets on either end.

Breakdown

This is a rematch of a 2014 fight which saw Fabricio Werdum win a lopsided decision on his way to eventually taking the UFC heavyweight title. Werdum is the best grappler in heavyweight MMA history and for years that was the crux of his game. However, after working with Kings MMA for many years, Werdum has developed into an excellent pressure striker (despite the horrid, wild runs he took at Miocic which got him slept). Werdum doesn’t have a ton of power especially in the context of the heavyweight division but what he does have is a sharp, active jab and a high volume output. He consistently works his way forward behind jab-lead combinations and a powerful kicking game. He also does very good work in the clinch where his knees are some of the best strikes in his repertoire. Defensively, Werdum is more durable than particularly sound but his forward pressure and ability to force opponents back into the cage help to mitigate the power shots he takes.

As stated, Werdum is the best grappler in the history of the division. He’s an ADCC champion and his jiu-jitsu is the very definition of world class. On top, he is a monster mixing strikes and submissions well, but where he truly stands out, is as a bottom player. Fighting off one’s back is an increasingly lost art in MMA but Werdum is one keeping it alive. His control from his back and sweep/submit game ensures very few fighters want to go to the mat with him. He’s also a better wrestler than he gets credit for though still not a phenomenal takedown threat.

Browne is an enormous heavyweight with big power and surprising speed for a man of his stature. He isn’t a tremendously technical striker but he’s improving slowly and he works at a plus rate for the division. However, he isn’t a very good defensive fighter, being very vulnerable to being backed into the fence and relying far too much on his length to avoid strikes despite not being great at maintaining range. He is also extremely susceptible to kicks.

Browne’s other key strength is in defending the takedown. Not only is he very difficult to take down but he punishes those attempts with thunderous elbows and knees. While not a great offensive wrestler, he is serviceable there and a handful from top position where his length and power allow him to rain down vicious strikes.

This fight has already happened and the outcome wasn’t an aberration. The only real reason to believe this fight would be any different is if Werdum has suddenly hit the downslope of his career, which is entirely possible. Werdum’s loss to Miocic was bad on several accounts but mostly from the fact that Werdum, who is normally a very strategically sound fighter, threw his game plan out the window after failing to corral Miocic for a few minutes and chased after him wildly. If he does something similar here, Browne could absolutely lamp him. However, Browne still doesn’t have great footwork and his camp isn’t one that inspires confidence in game planning. Frankly, going from Jackson-Wink to Edmund Tarverdyan is a pretty serious disadvantage in this rematch as is the fact that he just got obliterated by Cain Velasquez two months ago. By far the most likely outcome here is that Brown gets repeatedly backed up and caves under the consistent pressure of Werdum. I think Werdum should be a bigger favorite here and very much like Werdum at -200.

Breakdown

Urijah Faber is MMA’s foremost bridesmaid, and after coming up short in yet another title shot, Faber returns against the extremely dangerous and surging Jimmie Rivera. As a striker, Faber is almost entirely a big overhand right thrown either off the lead or as a counter and the occasional low kick. At range, he likes to switch stance …

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