UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem staff picks and predictions

By admin
- Tweet
- Pin It
Updated: September 10, 2016

The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for UFC 203, and would you believe that Alistair Oveeem has been given the slight edge over Stipe Miocic in the main event? Probably, it is a really tough fight to call, but yes, a rare instance in which the challenger is the one who has been backed by the majority of the staff to become a new UFC champion.

Only two people (Eddie Mercado and Tim Bissell) think Travis Browne wins his rematch vs. Fabricio Werdum. Victor Rodriguez and Fraser Coffeen have CM Punk beating Mickey Gall. They’ll either be geniuses or face eternal mocking from everyone else.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Monday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem

Anton Tabuena: While Miocic is the better wrestler, I’m not sure if his pressure/cagework will be as successful against someone like Overeem who is so dangerous in the clinch. I also believe that while the first big punch can (will?) turn the tide, Overeem is the better overall striker here. Miocic could probably do well if he can box, avoid the early shots in the clinch, and go for takedowns to mix things up and open up Overeem’s defense. Stylistically though, I think this is a tough matchup for him. It can go either way, but I think Overeem is more likely to come out with the UFC belt (and add it to his already impressive collection). Alistair Overeem by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Wow, I’m a tad surprised at the number of Overeem picks. I suppose it isn’t that surprising given this is a genuinely compelling fight and no one seems to want to successfully defend the heavyweight title even more than once. I’m really torn here. The Uberknees, kicking game, and body attacks of Overeem could break down Miocic’s durability pretty quickly. Miocic has great boxing on the counter and has developed into a consistent finisher. It’s up to Miocic to control the pace of this fight, and the longer it wears on, the more you have to go with the champion to defend his title. Also, Overeem has been great, but his reputation has being a little on the fragile side in terms of getting hit flush is well deserved and didn’t erase itself during the winning streak. If Overeem wins, it’ll be early, otherwise, Miocic takes this. Stipe Miocic via TKO, round 3.

Victor Rodriguez: This is a bit complicated. While Overeem has hit a nice little stride here, he continues to hunt that one single KO killshot to win fights. On the other hand, Miocic has great combinations and timing, plus he’s probably the most dynamic all-around athlete in the heavyweight division. Overeem’s defense has gotten better, but I still can’t trust it. Sure, dos Santos is probably the still the one of the best boxers in his division (if not the best), and Overeem fought extra smart against him as well as against Arlovski – another feared striker that has good boxing offense. To replicate that aspect of those performances in this bout will be interesting, but mixing the boxing with wrestling and excellent cardio, I have to go with Miocic here. I don’t see Overeem doing well with the speed and Miocic pushing the pace and controlling the range as well as where the fight takes place. Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO.

Eddie Mercado: You know what I kneed? I kneed to see Alistair Overeem win the UFC heavyweight title. Questionable chin/gas tank aside, the devastating knees of Overeem will be the great equalizer. Stipe Miocic has not faced an opponent who was willing, or sometimes able, to utilize knee strikes since Stefan Struve back in September of 2012. And new! Alistair Overeem by TKO (Knees) Rd. 1.

Dayne Fox: I hate picking heavyweight title fights. I’m not going to try and break this down because both hit hard and can certainly put the other one down. My reason for picking Overeem? It’s the Year of Title Changes. That’s about as scientific as I’m getting. Overeem via KO RD2

Zane Simon: The Overeem that fought Andrei Arlovski looked slower. He was still doing his very smart stick and move thing that he’s put together over the last couple years, but he was doing it with less speed and efficiency than before. The fact that he was fighting Andrei Arlovski, who himself has to be cautious about pace (and getting KO’d) meant that it didn’t really matter that Overeem didn’t look amazing. I think it matters here. Stipe (unlike a lot of heavyweights) actually does a very good job returning fire at opponents as they try and drop in on him. It’s what got him the win over Werdum. And unlike Arlovski, Stipe has never showed any real durability problems (aside from a funky KO loss to Struve). Against Roy Nelson, playing his new, safety-first style, Overeem still almost got lit up a few times. Against someone faster who can maintain his output better, I just don’t see Overeem lasting. Stipe Miocic via KO, Round 2.

Staff picking Miocic: Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, TimStaff picking Overeem: Nick, Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Coffeen, Bissell

Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne

Anton Tabuena: They’re heavyweights, so anything can happen, but Werdum has already shown how far they are skillwise, even when playing to Browne’s strengths. Unless he gets careless or runs into punches again, this should be a similar bout. Fabricio Werdum by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Yeah, short of Browne winning this early because heavyweights are weird that way (and Browne certainly has some big KOs on his record), there’s nothing to suggest the rematch is any better for Browne than the first fight was. The only difference is the beating will only last up to 15 minutes instead of 25. Fabricio Werdum by submission, round 2.

Victor: Remember the last time these two fought? Browne hit the early blitz and Werdum went on to put on a dazzling clinic en route to a decision where despite spurts of offense, Travis ended up looking tired and shot.

Eddie: I remember the first time these guys fought. Browne hurt Werdum early but couldn’t put the Brazilian away leaving Hapa petered out for the rest of the bout. Somehow, Browne managed to last the entire 25 minutes. Now I’m not sure if that’s a testament to the toughness of Browne or if it says something about Werdum not being able to finish a gassed Hapa? If Werdum couldn’t finish in 5 then I can’t see him finishing in 3… Especially after the chin check he recieved from Stipe. I expect a respectful and cautious Werdum on the feet and do not see this ending in his favor. Travis Browne by KO, Rd. 1.

Dayne: Werdum responded really well the last time he was embarrassed in the cage. Anyone remember his last loss before falling to Miocic? In Strikeforce as he fell to his back time and again inviting Overeem into his guard. He revamped a lot of things and it took him to the pinnacle as UFC heavyweight champion. I think he got complacent wearing the gold and losing it should give him his edge back. Plus, do you really think a Travis Browne coached by Edmund Tarverdyan is going to take out an elite fighter? Werdum via decision

Zane Simon: Browne could obviously win this. He hits stupid hard, he’s huge, and he has fast hands and reasonably fast feet. But moment to moment he’s all over the place technically. There’s no real rhyme or reason to what he does or when he does it. It’s the kind of style that can surprise a lot of people but isn’t actually great for winning fights over the run of a round. Fabricio Werdum by decision.

Staff picking Werdum: Nick, Victor, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, TimStaff picking Browne: Eddie, Bissell

Mickey Gall vs. CM Punk

Anton Tabuena: He seems to have shown a lot of improvements since the early footage from his entry in Roufusport, but I’m not sure if that will be enough. Gall is much younger, faster, and way more experienced. He is also a BJJ brown belt who showed promise even against top grapplers. Not only is Punk having his very first fight ever, he is also having his very first weight cut. All the odds seem stacked against him, and I guess this is why I am really rooting for CM Punk to land something big on the feet. I doubt it happens though. Mickey Gall by Submission.

Mookie Alexander: CM Punk isn’t going to win and there is quite frankly no need to dive deep into any sort of analysis. Mickey Gall by whatever he wants, in no longer than 2.5 minutes.

Victor: Yeah, I’m the guy that wrote that thing. It seems that more than anything, the ramifications of the bout appear to be more interesting than the fight itself, seeing as there isn’t as much buzz as the UFC may have anticipated for a Brooks fight when he was first brought on board. Putting that aside, we’ve seen Brooks’ progression via the documentary series and saw the open workouts where he still looks clunky and stiff. Besides, Gall has actual experience with 3-0 as an amateur and 2-0 as a pro. Punk has a stiff European uppercut and specializes in ladder matches. You know what? Fuck it – I’m going with Team Chaos and picking Punk. Gall could be coming into this a bit too confident and get dropped by those hands. Yes, Gall looked great holding his own against eventual dark horse EBI tournament winner Gordon Goddamn Ryan. I don’t care. Let’s just hope Punk walks in to Cult of Personality to really spoil the party for the haters. Phil Brooks by TKO.

Eddie: So, I suppose it’s time for this to go down. I think CM Punk and Mickey Gall are getting an opportunity that a lot of people could only dream of. Are they deserving? Mickey Gall isn’t exactly sure and neither am I. I really hope CM Punk brings something of value to the ocatagon aside from eyeballs, whether it be in heart, skill, or hopefully both. I pray this isn’t Randy Couture vs. James Toney II and that somehow this match will morph into a competitive display of grit and …

continue reading in source www.bloodyelbow.com

Breaking news