Race reset: Examining the closest playoff chases

As the season heads down the home stretch, five of the eight postseason races feature wide margins. In the American League Central (Indians), AL West (Rangers), National League East (Nationals), NL Central (Cubs) and NL West (Dodgers), the first-place team has greater than a 90-percent probability of winning the division.

But that still leaves three tight races that could change hands frequently over the final three-plus weeks of the regular season.

Here is a breakdown of those battles, looking at a key series for each, plus each relevant team’s odds, remaining strength of schedule (SOS) and biggest question. Note that the SOS was calculated as the average winning percentage, through Thursday, of a team’s upcoming opponents.

AL EAST

1. RED SOX: 78-61 (.561)Probability of a division title: 56.6 percentRemaining SOS: .528 (10 of 23 games at home). Boston only has division opponents left, and of its remaining games, all but three — Sept. 23-25 at Tampa Bay — are against clubs with winning records.Biggest question: Boston’s bullpen ranks 17th in the Majors with a 3.83 ERA, including 4.70 in August. Koji Uehara’s recent return from the disabled list may help, but the unit could be tested in some big spots against the likes of Toronto and Baltimore.

2. BLUE JAYS: 77-62 (.554), 1 game behindProbability of a division title: 32.7 percentRemaining SOS: .510 (13 of 23 games at home). The Blue Jays still have to make a road trip to the West Coast, with four games against the Angels and three against the Mariners.Biggest question: When the Yankees finished off a sweep of the Blue Jays on Wednesday in the Bronx, Toronto catcher Russell Martin left in the top of the ninth inning after tweaking his left knee. While he is considered day to day, the Blue Jays can’t afford to lose Martin, who leads the club with a .931 OPS since the All-Star break.

3. ORIOLES: 76-63 (.547), 2 games behindProbability of a division title: 9.9 percentRemaining SOS: .511 (11 of 23 games at home). The Orioles still face road series at Detroit, Boston, Toronto and New York but do get a break by hosting Arizona for an Interleague set.Biggest question: Baltimore ranks 26th in the Majors in ERA from the starting rotation (4.86) and 24th in innings. Chris Tillman is set to return on Sunday for his first outing since Aug. 20, and the O’s will need him to produce like he has for much of the season.

Crucial series: Red Sox at Blue Jays, Friday-Sunday. A sweep either way would shift the balance of power significantly, as these teams clash for the first time since early June. They also will finish the season against each other, with three games at Fenway Park.

AL WILD CARD

1. RED SOX: 78-61 (.561), lead AL EastProbability of a Wild Card berth: 33.7 percent

2. BLUE JAYS: 77-62 (.554), 1-game lead for first Wild CardProbability of a Wild Card berth: 47.9 percent

3. ORIOLES: 76-63 (.547), 1-game lead for second Wild CardProbability of a Wild Card berth: 36.2 percent

4. TIGERS: 75-64 (.540), 1 game behind second Wild CardProbability of a Wild Card berth: 41.0 percentRemaining SOS: .480 (14 of 23 games at home). The Tigers have two series against the Indians, who have beaten them 11 of 12 times this …

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