Four Plays That Will Shape the Outcome of the 2016 NFL Season

Each NFL season ultimately comes down to just a handful of plays–the blitz that doesn’t get picked up, the tight end seam route that the safety cannot cover, the fake handoff that sets up the long bomb, the goal-line pass that should have been a run. (Sorry about that last one, Seahawks fans).

This season will be no different. The top contenders have their core concepts, offensive and defensive tactics that most opponents just cannot stop. Most of the strategies are pretty basic on the surface: keep the opponent guessing, create mismatches for playmakers, use your own talent to maximum advantage. But when Rob Gronkowski, Von Miller, the Cardinals veterans or Cam Newton are added to the equation, a basic strategy can turn into an overwhelming edge.

Here are four core plays from four top contenders, ripped from 2015 game film, which will shape the outcome of the 2016 season. (Actually, there are six total plays, but they are built on four core concepts). These plays will either propel the NFL’s elite back to championship weekend, or challengers will find new ways to neutralize them and create a whole new power structure atop the standings.

Team: Carolina Panthers

Play Concept: Play-action deep passes built from the read-option threat.

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Defenses facing the Panthers last year had to worry about Cam Newton’s arm, his legs and an option-laced playbook designed to make the best use of each. This season, they have one more thing to worry about: an upgraded receiving corps.

The figure below is taken from the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. Newton is in shotgun with Jonathan Stewart (28) and a blocking back in the backfield. The defense must be wary of both Newton and Stewart as read-option rushing threats. So when Stewart follows his blocker past Newton (who briefly pauses to sell the option), the whole middle of the defense is frozen. Linebackers watch the backfield action before retreating into pass coverage. Even the free safety is temporarily immobilized.

Stewart and the blocker are merely pass protectors on this play, however. The seven-man protection gives Newton time to scan the field while Ted Ginn (19) runs a wheel route and Greg Olsen (88) runs a post. The poor defensive back lined up against Olsen had to worry about Newton on an option, then scurried into flat coverage against Ginn, only to find himself covering one of the NFL’s fastest receivers racing up the sideline. Newton found the wide-open Ginn for 29 yards.

The Panthers used a similar concept against the Cardinals later in the fourth quarter, when they were pulling away with a victory. The diagram below shows Olsen beating a deep safety for a 54-yard catch and run with the defense in man coverage. The principles are the same: two backs, an option threat, max protection to slow the defense.

You will notice that Kelvin Benjamin (13) has been added to these diagrams. Last season, defenses had little to fear from receivers like Corey Brown and Devin Funchess. With Benjamin back and Funchess more experienced, the Panthers can flood the field with dangerous receivers while still using the option threat to force defenders to react instead of acting.

The best way to stop Panthers concepts like these is to build a lead, which will minimize the impact of the running game. The Broncos did that in the second half of the Super Bowl. We’ll get to them later.

Team: New England Patriots

Play Concept: Red zone tight end mismatches.

The Patriots create mismatches by filling the field with versatile weapons and playing at a quick tempo. The plays themselves are usually pretty simple. But with tight ends and running backs who can play wide receiver and shifty wide receivers who can cause havoc in the slot, defenses often find …

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