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NFL Predictions Week 1: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule
- Updated: September 7, 2016
Week 1 is a great time for bettors to become accustomed with the ways of picking an upset.
With Las Vegas having the same tools to work with as bettors at the start of the season, a close look at each game on the slate will reveal much in the way of exploitable lines.
Said tools, of course, boil down to last year’s results, roster analysis and the mother of all betting rules—projection.
Applying those tools to Week 1 reveals a few matchups with some interesting odds. For bettors willing to throw down on some midweek lines, they’re important ones to hit before Las Vegas can adjust.
NFL Week 1 Odds
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Top Upset Picks Buffalo at Baltimore (-3)
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It’s almost like last season never happened.
There, the Baltimore Ravens were one of the most injured teams in the league and stumbled to a 5-11 record. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, managed to go 8-8 in their first year of direction under head coach Rex Ryan and perhaps found a long-term option at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor.
Granted, a line of three suggests home-field advantage and little else, but it’s still an exploitable line.
Buffalo only surrendered an average of 22.4 points per game last year, a number the unit can improve on this year right out of the gates as it encounters Joe Flacco, who returns from a devastating knee injury last year.
As much as this matchup seems about defense, though, it is Taylor who will give the Bills the edge. The man threw for 3,035 yards and 20 touchdowns last year with another 568 yards and four scores on the ground.
So long as Taylor takes care of the football, he won’t allow the Bills to fall into a one-dimensional attack, and the versatility of it will keep the Ravens on heels, not toes. That’s the recipe for …
