NFL Picks Week 1: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

The long, excruciating wait is over: The 2016 NFL regular season is officially upon us.

The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos kick things off Thursday night with a repeat of their Super Bowl matchup, setting the stage for a predictably huge opening weekend. All the off-field distractions will go by the wayside, and, for once, we’ll finally get to focus on the game at hand.

Fantasy football is back! The NFL RedZone channel is back! Every team has a chance! OK—every team except the Cleveland Browns has a chance!

It’s all fun and games and candy and lollipops right now. We won’t face the sobering reality of the sport we’re watching until at least three minutes into the first game. And, boy, those will be some grand three minutes. With that in mind, let’s check in on the weekend schedule with some tips on how to bet Week 1.

Best Week 1 Bets Green Bay Packers (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have rightfully received hype as one of the NFL’s rising franchises. They’ve built a solid infrastructure around draft picks, seemingly have a quarterback of the future in Blake Bortles and solidified a couple of weaknesses (running back and defensive line) in free agency.

Still, you’re getting the Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers at less than a touchdown favorite against a team that hasn’t won more than five games since 2010. Jacksonville hasn’t won a season opener since 2011, while the Packers are finally getting an added benefit of playing a non-elite team in the first week. (That five-year stretch from 2010-14 was a bloodbath.)

Rodgers should begin a bounce-back campaign here with a big afternoon. Look for the Pack to roll and make that 4.5-point spread look silly.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Detroit Lions

My review of quarterback Matthew Stafford without Calvin Johnson: Noooo thanks. …

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