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The Bottom Line: Stipe Miocic’s Uphill Climb
- Updated: September 6, 2016
Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.*** It’s not your imagination.If it feels like the Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight title has been passed around like a hot potato since its creation, that’s because it largely has been. Much has been made in the past year over the volume of title changes across the board in the UFC. In most divisions, that’s a break from the past. In the heavyweight division, that’s par for the course. As Stipe Miocic attempts his first title defense against Alistair Overeem in the UFC 203 main event on Saturday, Cleveland’s native son shouldn’t get too comfortable with the gold around his waist. History suggests his run won’t last very long. UFC heavyweight and interim heavyweight champions defending their titles — including in unification bouts — are just 16-15, barely over .500. Heavyweight champions eke out the all-time series over challengers thanks to successful defenses against the likes of David Abbott, Gan McGee and Justin Eilers. That is far and away the worst success rate for champions in any division. Every other UFC division has a significantly better winning percentage for defending champions. Defending light heavyweight champions are 25-10 (.714 winning percentage), middleweights 16-6 (.727), welterweights 23-9 (.718), lightweights 13-5-1 (.722), featherweights 8-1 (.888), bantamweights 8-2 (.800), flyweights 8-0 (1.000), women’s bantamweights 6-3 (.667) and women’s strawweights are 3-1 (.750). Collectively, non-heavyweight UFC champions are 110-37-1 in title defenses (.748). If you based the odds for upcoming title fights solely on those past results, a generic heavyweight challenger would basically be even odds while the non-heavyweight challenger would be a 3-to-1 underdog. It isn’t just that there’s a trend against longer title runs in the UFC heavyweight division; there is no outlier in the history of the company. No UFC heavyweight champion has ever defended his title more than twice during an …
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